“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
– Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

“We will not have any more crashes in our time.”
– John Maynard Keynes in 1927

When something goes on for a long time, particularly something the defies previously accepted truths, eventually people come to believe it will go on forever. Everyone thought the economic prosperity of the 1920s would go on forever. Few foresaw the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s. Investors and economists are particularly prone to this problem, often projecting short-term trends to infinity.

For the last several years now, pretty much everyone predicted interest rates would rise. Year after year, we were told mortgage rates would rise to 5% and then to 6% shortly thereafter. Every year the pundits were wrong.

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Keith Kaplan

CalBRE #01933707
Sothebys International Realty
9255 Sunset Blvd.
West Hollywood, CA   90069

































































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